Noel still heading west. Wild Weather Wednesday

Noel continues to build very heavy thunderstorm just north of Cuba. The NHC still has Noel just missing south Florida and curving north out to see but if you have been keeping track Noel has been heading more south of their predicted path. I think Noel will have a 40% chance to hitting Florida directly.


Wild Weather Wednesday

The 2005 Hurricane season.

In 2005 we had a record breaking season. We had 27 Storms 13 of them tropical storms and 15 Hurricanes. We also had hurricane Wilma which had the lowest Pressure on record. 5 hurricane made landfall and 3 tropical storms made landfall. Thank you for visting on Wild Weather Wednesday.


H10

Update on Noel

Tropical storm Noel made landfall this morning in eastern Cuba with top winds of 60 mph. Noel is now heading west at 11 mph still staying inland on Cuba. Noel is expected make a north west to north in the next 24 hours. We will have to see what will happen noel in the next 24-48 hours cause it could make a slight landfall in southern Florida. Like I said yesterday i do not think Noel will be much of a problem except very heavy rainfall. I can not post any pictures today because Blogger will not let me. I will see if i can post any pictures tomorrow.

H10

Quick post on our new tropical storm Noel

Tropical storm noel formed Sunday and has continued its west-northwest movement. This tropical storm may impact south Florida in the next 3-4 days. I think Noel will not be much of a problem except flooding.





H10

New system to watch 90L

90L

90L is located about 88 miles SW of San Juan, Puerto Rico with winds up to 25 knots. 90L continues to look not very impressive as seen on the latest satellite imagery. If you look close enough you can see the COC just SW of Puerto Rico. 90L is expected to continue its westward movement into the western Caribbean. It is to early to tell what will happen with 90L. I will have an update on 90L Monday unless it develops.


H10

Wild Weather Wednesdays.

Today on Wild Weather Wednesdays.

CA. wildfires

The California wildfires have burned more then 700,000 acres and as many as 950,000 people were told to get out. Meteorologists expect the Santa Ana wind to die down this afternoon. Nearly 350,000 homes evacuates in San Diego County and more then 1,200 home destroyed. 70 people have been injured and at least 1 killed. I might have pictures of the fire Thursday.

H10

One area of disturbed weather. And a new series Wild Weather Wednesday

An area of disturbed weather has developed just east of the Lesser Antilles. It will not develop into much today because wind shear is 20-30 knots over the area but wind shear is expected to die down. Here is the latest satellite imagery.

Wild Weather Wednesday.
I am starting a new series called Wild Weather Wednesday. I will have a new topic every week, stay tuned this wednesday on the C.A. wildfires.




H10

Not much going on in the Atlantic as hurricane season comes to a close

In the Atlantic today there is not much going on. The water is beginning to get cooler and as most of you know there is only 38 days left in hurricane season (November 30). If you remember the 2005 hurricane season the end of hurricane season did not mean anything. We had two named storms after November 30. Hurricane Epsilon and tropical storm Zeta. I might put a post up Tuesday.



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Not much going on in the tropics.

Tropical update.

In the tropical Atlantic there is not much going on except one area just south of Jamaica. I am not able to get any buoy data from the area because all the National Data Buoy Center buoys failed. Wind shear in the area is about 5 knots we will have to see what happens with this area. Hear is the latest satellite photo.

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Two new disturbances to watch 98L and 99L

98L

98L is not looking very impressive on the latest satellite imagery and is being torn apart by 10-25 knots of wind shear from the east. I do not think this system will develope here is the latest satellite imagery and computer models.

Figure 1. 98L latest satellite

Figure 2. 98L latest computer models.

99L

99L is also not looking very organized but is only under 5-10 knots of shear which may allow some slow development. I might have an update on 99L later today. here is the latest computer models for 99L.

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TD 15

Tropical depression 15

TD 15 has formed in the mid Atlantic about 800 miles SSE of Bermuda. TD 15 has max wind of 35 mph and gusts up to 45mph. As of right now on the satellite imagery TD 15 is not looking to good and will probably be gone by Sunday. There is not much else going on in the Atlantic. I might have a new post later Today but if not i will not post one till next monday. Here is the NHC forecast track for TD 15.

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94L comes ashore

94L came ashore last night on Mexico's Yucatan peninsula with top winds of 30mph. Now wind have dropped to 25mph. This storm will probably merge into the GOM and could re-intensify. On the latest satellite imagry there still is a spin and 94L still has some very heavy thunderstorm around the center. As for right now 94L is very disorganized and it is unclear what she will do. Here are the latest computer models for 94L.

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Tropical depression may form today.

94L

Located less then 100 miles of the coast of Mexico. Max winds 30mph. 94L has lost a lot of the thunderstorm activity near the center of the storm. most of the heaviest thunderstorms have moved on the Yucatan peninsula. This storm could become a depression before it make land fall in Mexico but it is trying to spin up a large area and may not be able to do so. The computer models show that 94L could merge into the GOM or even merge into the pacific. Other computer models have it moving back into the western Caribbean. Here are the latest computer models for 94L.

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92L getting its act together. 91L taking a beating

92L

92L continues to look impressive on the latest satellite loops (located just north Puerto Rico). There is an evident spin and a lot of convection wrapping around the center. Most

of the computer models still have it going west into the GOM or WC(Western Caribbean).

Figure 1. Satellite picture of 92L and located on the bottom right is 91L.

91L

91L continues to be battered by 20-40 knots of wind shear. 91L also continues to generate a lot of heavy thunderstorms. We will have to see what will happen with 91L.

I might not get a post up Saturday but i will have one up by Sunday at 5pm.

66666For my earlier post today please scroll down 66666

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update on 91L,92L, and Super Typhoon Krosa

91L

91L continues to remain disorganized today on resent satellite loops. It is being tore up by wind shear up to 20-30 knots.This may kill off the storm but it is to early to tell what will happen. If the storm does survive most of the computer models bring to the Lesser Antilles and the a more northerly curve towards puerto rico. Here are the computer models for 91L.

Since yesterday you can see that most of the computer models are bringing it more south. we will have to see what happens with 91L. I might have an update on 91L later today.

92L---sorry i am having technical difficulties with 92L but i will have an update on 91L later today.---

Super Typhoon Krosa

Krosa continues to look very impressive on satellite imagery. Krosa has winds of 150mph and gust up to 185mph. She is expected to hit north Taiwan. Here is the latest satellite imagery.

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90L Not a threat. Update on 91L,92L, and Typhoon Krosa

90L

90L is almost dead. On satellite loops this morning you can still see a spin but there is not any convection around the COC.(center of circulation). This storm will probably not develop but bring some gusty winds and high surf for TX/LA. This is my last post for 90L unless it develops.

91L

91L is not very organized as seen on the latest satellite loops. 91L is located about 1218 miles east of Barbados. Here are the latest models for 91L.

As you can see the models have 91L going just north of the LA islands and then recurve out to sea. I will have an update on91L later today.

92L

92L is also very disorganized.91L is located about 280 miles ENE of Nassau, Bahamas.

92l will keep drifting southwestward for the next couple of days and will probably impact Cuba or southern Florida and then cross into the GOM. Here are the computer models for 92L

I will have an update on 92L later today.

Typhoon Krosa

Max sustained winds: 130mph gusts up to 160 mph. location: western pacific.

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busy

sorry everyone but I will not be posting any posts for today. tomorrow i will have an exclusive post on our new systems !!!90L,91L, and 92L!!!


sorry
im hurricane 10

90L getting better organized.

90L max winds 30mph. Movement West at 8mph. Pressure 1006 compared to yesterdays 1008. this means that 90L is geting stronger.

90L continues to kick up very heavy thunderstorms on its west side(as seen on the latest satellite imagery).Most of the computer models bring 90L to Texas or Louisiana as a tropical storm.This storm will likely start out as a subtropical depression instead of a normal tropical depression.(subtropical means it does not have all the tropical characteristics as it should).
This is the computer models for 90L. As you can see most of the models take 90L to Galveston bay or the FL/AL border. If you have any questions please leave me a comment.

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1:23pm

Abbreviations for tropical talk.

ATCF: Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system
CATL: Central Atlantic
CDO: Central Dense Overcast
CMC: Canadian Meteorological Center
EATL: East Atlantic
ECMWF: European Center for Medium range WeatherForecasting
GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GFS: Global Forecast System
GOMEX: Gulf Of MEXico
HWRF: Hurricane and Weather Research Forecasting
IVO: In the Vicinity Of
LLC: Low Level Circulation
MJO: Madden Julian Oscillation
MSLP: Mean Sea Level Pressure
NAM: North American Model
NCATL: North Central Atlantic
NEWD: Northeastward
NHC: National Hurricane Center
NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Atmospheric PredictionSystem
NWD: Northward
OBX: Outer Banks (N.C.)
SEUS: SouthEast U.S.
SWWD: Southwestward
TUTT: Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trof
UKMET: United Kingdom METeorological office
ULL: Upper Level Low
UTC: Universal Time Coordinated
WW3: WaveWatch 3
modelZulu Time: (Z) as in 1200Z...Same as UTC.

thank you for hurricne tracker im hurricane10
ill have an update in about an hour.

Update on 90L

90L Max winds 35mph moving west a 8mph 1008mb
8:00 model run. Only four models the BAMM, BAMD, BAMS, and the UKMET ran for 9oL. I will break each model down.

1. BAMM. Shows 90L scraping panama city beach.
2.BAMS. Same as BAMM
3.BAMS. Shows 90L hitting the MI/AL border
4.UKMET. Shows 90L hitting about 100 miles east of New Orleans.

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8:20pm

New system to watch 90L.Karen and Melissa gone.

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1. This system located around south Florida was labeled "invest 90L" by the NHC earlier today. The newest satellite loops show obvious rotation around south Florida and people anywhere from the Florida panhandle to the Texas/Mexico border

should monitor this system closely. The current wind shear is about 20 to 40 knots over the system which will stop any formation for today. I will have an update for 90L by Tuesday afternoon.

figure 1. This picture is a wind analysis From south Florida. As you can see just off the coast of the Florida keys is winds up to 50 knots witch is about 57 mph.

2. Karen and Melissa. Karen was torn up by wind shear up to 50 knots Saturday and could possible redevelop within the next couple of days. I give this about a 50% chance of happening. Melissa was also torn apart by wind shear and will probable not redevelop.

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